TechXGeopolitics #20: Israel’s Destroying Gaza. Is the Occupied West Bank Next?
Also featured: Ukraine Has No Plan. Does Russia?
Welcome to my newsletter, where I set out to highlight significant, yet un- or underreported recent news and trends at the intersection of geopolitics and tech.
Why the intersection of technology and geopolitics? The future of geopolitics will be shaped by today’s tech advances, yet the two topics are often isolated from one another in journalism and geopolitical analysis. This newsletter strives to bridge the gap while also spotlighting relevant work by emerging and veteran writers in independent media.
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Israel’s Destroying Gaza. Is the Besieged West Bank Next?
“These measures [in the West Bank] are not merely empty gestures or intimidation tactics; they serve as a clear indication of what is to come. The groundwork is being laid for a broader offensive.”
Genocide continues to decimate Gaza; deteriorating conditions in the West Bank signal it may spread.
Since October 7, generally, Israeli violence against West Bank Palestinians has increased dramatically: according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, at least 622 West Bank residents, including at least 142 children, have been killed as of late August.
Israel has also been closing in on West Bank territory, declaring thousands of hectares of West Bank land as state territory this year. As West Bank-based journalist Fayha’ Shalash reported for Al Mayadeen English on September 10, Israeli settlers in the region have also been calling for buffer zones “under the pretext of preventing armed infiltration of Israeli-occupied territory.” But Palestine-based humanitarians fear the buffer goals instead can help facilitate settlers’ territorial expansion into the region.
Plans to take control of West Bank “without the government being accused of annexing it,” even leaked over the summer; Israeli PM Netanyahu was allegedly “fully onboard” with such efforts.
Meanwhile, worsening economic conditions continue to plague the West Bank. Such is due in part to Israel’s frequent withholdings of Palestinian tax revenues from the Palestinian National Authority, which governs the West Bank. Such revenues constitute a majority of the Palestinian Authority’s budget; without the revenues, already poor West Bank Palestinians are often forced to reduce food consumption and access to other basic services, like health care. Increased movement restrictions and curfews, as I’ve previously reported, have also inhibited many West Bank Palestinians’ ability to work.
And Israeli politicians have been pushing for efforts to decouple Palestinians’ banking systems from Israeli ones, which could facilitate their collapse, and otherwise economically isolate the West Bank. Mondoweiss reporter Qassam Muaddi says such measures are altogether designed to “artificially induce economic collapse” in the West Bank, thus financially forcing Palestinians out of the region.
A Treacherous Path Ahead
Recent events only suggest further escalation. On September 11, an Israeli airstrike killed five people in Tubas, a city in the West Bank. And Israelis recently carried out a week-long operation in West Bank’s Jenin, killing dozens; residents reported Israelis went from “house to house,” uprooting critical infrastructure while also bulldozing roads. Jenin municipality reported Israeli forces destroyed over 70% of the city’s infrastructure as a result; Breakthrough News described the incursion was at a “scale unseen [in the region] since 2002.”
“We left our homes, but thousands are still suffering there under the strict siege and fierce incursion," a West Bank resident told Middle East Eye. “There are still casualties in the streets that no one can reach.”
Notably, Israel’s initiated moves to declare the West Bank a combat zone; an Israeli Minister recently called for a “declaration of war” against Palestinians living there. Stirring the pot further, Israeli authorities have been providing arms to Israeli settlers in the West Bank for an extended period.
Many fear the worst is yet to come. As Francesca Albanese, the U.N. special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories, said in a recent statement:
“Israel’s genocidal violence risks leaking out of Gaza and into the occupied Palestinian territory as a whole. The writing is on the wall, and we continue to ignore it.”
As West Bank journalist Dalia Hatuqa wrote on X at the end of August:
“Two months ago, a friend told me that the West Bank is going to be next on the list of Israel’s genocidal plans. Today, I’m convinced it’s true. We are next. People are gathering their important documents and getting extra cash to prepare for what they fear is forced displacement.”’
Ukraine Has No Plan
Ukraine’s shock Kursk incursion in early August may have taken a little territory and critically boosted Ukrainian morale. But there’s little evidence it’s done much else in the long run, and, it’s questionable as to whether Kiev can hold on to newly captured territories. Meanwhile, Russia’s gone further inland in Ukraine, taking more territories in the Donbass region.
If the Kursk incursion has done anything concrete, in fact, it’s apparently frustrated attempts at diplomacy: as Branko Marcetic highlighted in Compact Magazine, Ukraine’s invasion reportedly “scuttled” secret partial ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Ultimately, Ukraine’s position is unenviable. As Mark Episkopos describes matters in the American Conservative, “Kiev is caught in the cleft stick of managing Western perceptions and running a war on the ground.”
Kiev’s indeed caught managing Western perceptions. Unfortunately for Kiev, such “Western perceptions” have been hyper-managed by a political class operating with a dangerous level of “group think” about the war, where more military aid to Ukraine is often an end all, be all. This tendency is showcased by episodes like the near-instantaneous withdrawal of a (rather milquetoast) letter by the Congressional Progressive Caucus pushing for diplomacy back in fall 2022.
Meanwhile at home, as I highlighted in a previous newsletter, Ukraine’s military recruitment tactics have become more aggressive as growing numbers of people attempt to dodge the draft: as the wealthy are often able to pay bribes to get out of fighting, it’s become a poor man’s war.
…..does Russia?
Ukraine may be increasingly desperate, and Russia may have the upper-hand militarily. Russia’s also more-or-less shaken off wartime sanctions imposed by the West. But Russia’s advantage is not so absolute, however, that it can deliver a coup-de-grace to Ukraine anytime soon (at least, not without risking a much larger conflict).
Critically, as journalists like Riley Waggaman (Edward Slavsquat) point out, Russia’s Special Military Operation has distanced it from, rather than brought it closer to, accomplishing its original objectives for going into Ukraine.
Namely, the war has not forced the West to fundamentally reconsider the role of institutions like NATO in international relations. In contrast, the war has only galvanized NATO, which has expanded since the start of the Special Military Operation to include Finland and Sweden, which ended generations of neutrality to do so. If NATO’s a cold war relic, the West hasn’t received the memo.
Moreover, Russia’s SMO has done little to “denazify” radical elements of the Ukraine’s military as it set out to do: in fact, the US lifted its ban on sending the Neo-Nazi linked Azov battalion weapons in June.
Another key objective of the SMO was to assist a separatist Donbass region frequently attacked by Ukraine; and yet, the region remains a frequent target for attack, as do growing parts of Russia. Belgorod city in Russia, in fact, has declared a state of emergency because of increasing Ukrainian attacks.
Growing discontent with the war in the West, as signaled by the popularity of politicians like Germany’s Sahra Wagenknecht, indicate that will for diplomacy is brewing. But if this diplomatic tide doesn’t turn soon, Russia’s in a pickle it’s helped create. As the “meat-grinder” conditions of the current war suggest, Russians and Ukrainians alike will suffer for it.
“Double Counteraction”
Responding to tenuous geopolitical conditions, Russia’s phoning friends. Namely, it’s investing in increased military partnership with China: Moscow's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recently declared that “Moscow and Beijing will respond to 'double containment' and aggression by the United States with 'double counteraction.’”
While emphasizing the “double containment” policy was defensive in nature, she explained, "if an aggressive policy of attack is being implemented against us from one centre, why don't we combine our potential and give an appropriate rebuff?"
Russia and China’s growing relationship is understandable within the context of a war-hungry West that’s essentially alienated Russia wholesale. Unfortunately, the development indicates that, if war in Ukraine escalates, it’s all the more likely to expand to involve the world’s great powers.
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